Thursday, March 05, 2009

The reasons for the economic slump: My version

Well, it was a result of a big bang...

When the economic world is full with seething explosive agendas, it is necessary that only one of the agendas will crash to cause the grandiose Tower of Babel to fall down.
And it's true: The sick agenda that light the explosive barrel was the subprime mortgage financial crisis. Sir, you can't expect anything else to happen, and if you do - you just turned a blind eye from the reality, shamelessly.

I'm not a professionally educated economist, but (at least) in one thing I good at, and that is the objectively observing of reality and concluding obvious things that prejudice professionalists are not thinking about at all.

Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seatbelts. The facts are these:

The subprime mortgage financial crisis

OR: "RING RING... Hello! I would like to speak with the manager of the bank. (interval) Good morning Mr. Jackson! Listen, I just bought a new house in Miami and I need some cash... ah... no no, don't you worry about my negative current! Hey, I'm about to get a fat heritage in the next six months so there's not a problem.... Yeah sure sure, you can count on me about it... OK... aha aha, so you agree to lend me 300K? Great! Thank you very much Mr. Jackson. Have a nice day!"

The collapse of the American car industry

OR: That's what happened when your private car's engine is 5000cc. The gas is cheap you say? Hah! maybe in Texas, not in Tel Aviv or Paris.


Alcoholic legend

Bad times for the global real estate market

OR: That's what happened when you don't have the shame to ask 2.5 million pounds for your 2.5 rooms, ruined place, and just because it is located in London!

Retailers of consumer electronics are closing

OR: How many times should I tell you that? I don't need another 25" LCD television in my home!

Software companies are shutting down

OR: Reinventing the wheel and call it "a new product" just becuase it has a smoother GUI won't cause me to replace my steady, working system. And NO! I don't want to get your new ERP system in half price.

Hardware companies are shutting down

OR: Why do I need to replace my dual core processor to a quad-core processor if every software is running in the speed of sound? It will run Crysis much faster you say? But I'm 60 years old for god sake! Why would Crysis interests me at all if I don't even know how to do Average in Excel???

Mobile phones manufacturer are shutting down

OR: I'm... I'm really confused now. Tell me again what's the difference between 3.5G cellular and 4G? What else, except of stereo MP3 player, 2MP camera, 1000 different applications, hair drier, frying pan and stapler my mobile phone should be able to do? Let me stay with my 3G phone and watch high quality (NOT) YouTube video in the terribly small screen. That's all I need till the parents home.


It's nice. Really. It's just I don't really need this

Airliners industry is dying

OR: Get a brand new Airbus A340-600? Are you joking? I already have five A340-400 in my fleet! You suggesting A380? Hmmm... intersting, but for the transatlantic routes the A340 is truely enough. By the way, when will you start developing supersonic, CHEAP, airliners? We're at 2009 and the Wright brothers are just a distant memory now.

Airlines are collapsing

OR: How it comes that we still flying these non-economy airliners? Are we captives of the airliners industry and OPEC? (answer: yes, but shhh.....)


It's not the size that matters

The stock exchange is not a safe place anymore

OR: Day traders? Day troublers maybe! And left his words hanging.

And the list continues... but what the root for all of these?

It will be a shock to hear that, but the capitalism as we knew it is no longer relevant. In the last 30 years the world was developed too fast (exponentially, it is claimed) in all subjects: from construction to nano-technology. The growth of the worldwide population was not coherent with the supply and demand model of the capitalistic economy. The industry is producing too much supply for too small demand, and even though the prices for the goods are relatively low - it doesn't trigger the public to make a purchase. The supply and demand balance was out of control, becuase there's no real control in the capitalistic agenda. Theoretically you're allowed to produce whatever you want as long as you have the money to do it.

That's leads us to another slap in the face: The lack of regulations is a terminal disease. As an entrepreneur, when you don't have enough money to hold your business by self revenues, you know you can always use the famous crack: the venture capital. This financial invention, the tricky endless pool of funds, is the major factor to inflation. As long as the business does not live by itself, it is considered as a leech to the financial world, and the venture capitals, with thier flighty profligacy are only encouraging it!
True, in order to build up something new, moreover when it is a pioneering one, you need to put some risk. But the problems start when you put too much risk. In other words - there's no regulation. And where there's no regulations, people are playing with fire and for the big bang mentioned in the begining of the post, a small uncontrolled fire is enough to trigger it and leads us to the uncomfortable situation that we're face with these days.

Altough I defamed the traditional capitalism, please don't consider me as a communist. My world-view is that pure socialism unequivocally leads to a sad world settled by sad and embittered people. Fact: Every man in this planet, from china to the USA wants his space for creativity and self-fulfillment. The development of the society and quality of life is a direct derivatives of that fact, and in practice we where witness to the flourishing of the western bloc upon the eastern bloc for most of the time. The major problem with the communist regime is that only small group of people are enjoying the freedom of creative work and suitable pay back, and that is the over-powered government.


Is the "open source" is a camouflaged socialistic attitude?

The solution is a capitalism under a set of very strict regulations. Give the people a maximal freedom to produce and create whathever they like. Just give me a favour: keep your money close to you and don't fund every enthusiastic one.

So, the world is going to a big change, and it is inevitable. The big question is: Do we need a third world war to complete the transit or can we do it peaceably?

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